Friday, June 30, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 30-June-2006: Potential Long: No trade

Ok, this is another 'do-nothing'day for SG market. There is no rewarding entry level for SIMSCI. It opened high with impressive +8 points gain,
however, it was drifting down subsequently and staying flat for the whole trading day. Here I am showing how ugly is the SIMSCI 10-min chart for the day.

SIMSCI 30-June-2006: Potential Long

A three digit gain in DJ. Nikkei gains more than 300 points in the first hour of trading, SG gains around +8 points, pretty bullish day. I am watching for any possible entry to Long SIMSCI. With this type of big gap opening, patience is needed if one is to day trade. It might end up as a boring day with no trade setup completed.

Thursday, June 29, 2006

No trade 29-June-2006

I did not have any position for TIMSCI today. It was rather volatile and boring. It failed to complete my setup. In fact, after watching TIMSCI for the past few days, I found that it is a little bit tedious to trade this index. Price action goes wild frequently. No setup for SIMSCI. I guess tomorrow should have some action after Fed meeting tonight. I agree with some comments put on my blog about Mini Dow. I do find opportunity on this index futures. However, opportunities normaly appear after 11 to 12am Singapore time. I am the person who needs to struggle staying through the night (That's why watching World cup is just not for me), it is risky for me to day trade in the wee hours of the morning. I am not interested in trading stocks at this point of time. So far, it has been a lousy week to me. Looking forward for a next better trading week.

Trading for 29-June-2006: Potential Long TIMSCI, Pattern Pending SIMSCI

Sentiment is rather flat with positive biased. I see the possibility to Long TIMSCI today. After first hour of trading, a ascending triangle is being formed. Setup is yet to be completed. I am watching for possible Long entry.
I am slowing down myself in trading SIMSCI futures. Instead of sticking my mind to look for every possible trading opportunity on this tiny index futures, I will only trade if my predefined pattern setup exists. Otherwise, I will just leave it alone.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

TIMSCI 28-June-2006: Long trade closed.

I was looking at TIMSCI this morning. With 3-digits closed of Dow, TIMSCI opened low this morning. After first hour of trading, a descending triangle is formed in 5-min chart. I was looking at SHORT entry at 265.8. I pulled out my sell stop order, as realising RSI formation was not in my favour.
I waited for opportunity to go Long after seeing double bottom with high lows formation is RSI. Long position was established at 266.4. Mistake was made when I decided to put a closed stop loss at 266. Initial stop loss should be placed at 265. I did not face the fact that the volatility of this index did not allow me to be timid. Stoploss was hit as expected.
In fact , analysis done retrospectively shows if I were to follow my original plan, trade should be closed at 266.3. Though it is still a losing trade, loss is smaller and taken out by planned trailing stop is the best way of exit.
Small loss to pay for the lesson. One trade and the first trade of TIMSCI with a loss of -0.4 points.

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

SIMSCI 27-June-2006: TIMSCI looks better

I am having some problem day trading SIMSCI. I should say, it is a little bit difficult to find trading opportunity within the day. First problem lies in volume, for example, in the first two hours of trading today, less than 1000 contracts were traded. Secondly, intraday volatility is not impressive enough to generate attractive potential reward. I do not have trading idea for SIMSCI yet. Instead, TIMSCI (MSCI Taiwan) futures caught my attention. It is a volatile index, and traded in pretty good volume. Intraday chart looks good with trading opportunities. Another quiet day for me, watching the market. This month's profit target seems to be too far for me to reach. I am studying and adjusting the figure for next month.

Monday, June 26, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 26-June-2006

I have made a mistake today. Partly due to physical tiredness. I saw opportunity to Long SIMSCI at 280, (in fact, 279.9, if I was sharp enough). I was hesitating for nothing. It was not fear, but, my mind was stalled at that moment. All setup was done, and yet no action. Mistake is a mistake, I can't argue with market, nor would I chase the trade.
From 10-min chart, RSI started trend up before lunch break, and entry line was found at 279.5, with maximum chasing level at 280. This was supposed to be a small quick trade.
This is 10-min chart of SIMSCI Futures

SIMSCI 26-June-2006: Likely choppy

Market is likely to be flat for the coming days ahead of Fed meeting. I do not expect a nice trending intraday, instead it is likely to be choppy.
I am watching for any potential trading opportunity.

Saturday, June 24, 2006

Opportunist series: Stocks for 24-June-2006 onwards

Here I see some interesting stocks which appear to rebound. Though market sentiment remains negative, these stocks provide some quick short term trading opportunities. I saw tiong woon, C&O pharm, SKY china petrol, and InterraRes. I was preparing Monday's stockst trading, when I was almost finishing, a sudden thought came into my mind. All the potential candidates I saw are trading under long term moving averages. In which, it is telling me uptrend is not resumed just yet. Why do I even think of buying them? My profitable stocks trades before the corrections were all riding uptrend, because I knew the success rate is high when riding a established trend. And now, I am contradicting myself, just because of the unknown agenda to trade in my mind, and the hungry of profit. I closed my documents. I ignored all my preparations. No stocks trading for now, I was just wasting my time.

Friday, June 23, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 23-June-2006

I have decided not to trade today due to some personal commitment in the afternoon session. No short position for SIMSCI was established in ther morning after watching Nikkei making a higher low and failed to form a failure swing in RSI. It is likely to move up and might lead SIMSCI to bounce as well in the afternoon session. In addition, a potential double bottom formation was found in SIMSCI chart as well. Some charting problems in the early of the week, not a good week with only small gain. I close the week earlier with positive note.

SIMSCI 23-June-2006: Potential short

In the first hour of trading, downtrend is formed. With Nikkei loses around -200 points and HangSeng loses around -150 point, sentiment is negative biased. I am looking for opportunity to establish Short position on SIMSCI.

Thursday, June 22, 2006

RE:Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow 22-June-2006: Trade closed

After watching RSI making higher low and 10-min chart showed a undecisive movement, I closed the trade at 11,130 , with -18 points loss.

Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow 22-June-2006

I am looking at Short position of Mini Dow at 11,112. A established downtrend is shown in 10-min chart.

RE: SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Long Trade Closed

Long position of SIMSCI was closed at 282.4. Volume did not support buyers to push up further, and RSI was forming failure swing. A descending triangle was forming as well. I do not like the situation like this. Closed the trade with small gain. +0.4 point. I was very unhappy with the liquidity of SIMSCI. Sometimes it does give me the feeling of 'Why on the earth I am wasting my time trading this dummy index futures?'. Look at the daily volume, it is hardly cross 5000 contracts. I do see opportunity in SIMSCI futures trading, however, given the lack of liquidity, I am considering switching to some other better choice. This is 10-min chart of SIMSCI as at 3.30pm.

RE: SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Long Trade

After Nikkei gaining +400 points. I have established a Long position of SIMSCI at 282. SIMSCI does not seem to be strong. Closed trailing stop is placed.

RE: SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Potential Long

In fact, there were two opportunities to establish short position for SIMSCI at 1010am (281.7) and 1140am (281.3) , and these opportunities were proven to be profitable before lunch break. No action was taken as Nikkei and HangSeng were showing strong gain with more than 200 to 300 points gain. With positive regional sentiment, I would rather go Long or simply not trading.

SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Potential Long

It is a positive morning, with 3-digit gain in DJ last nite, both Nikkei and SIMSCI opened higher. Nikkei is trading near +300 point, while SIMSCI is trading around +4 point gain. I am looking for opportunity to enter Long position.

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow 21-June-2006

It is a excited opening for U.S market. From 1 min chart of Mini Dow,there was a good setup for Long position. Mini Dow futures was trading above 10, 15, and 30 period moving averages and closed above CBL entry level. RSI supported the entry decision by making higher lows. Entry was at 11075 with exit at trailing stop 11114.

RE: SIMSCI 21-June-2006: Long Trade closed

Position was closed at 277.3. SIMSCI futures failed to push up further after reached 278.1, 0.4 points away from my target. So near ,yet so far. That's trading. RSI off the high and fell below previous low. And spread of SIMSCI seemed to be abnormal. Europe and U.S futures were turning red as well. I was not comfortable with the situation to Long SIMSCI, sentiment does not support the buyers. position was closed.
I might be wrong, I found no reason to hold on Long position. One trade, 0 point gain.

RE: SIMSCI 21-June-2006: Long Trade

Another reversal trade again. Long position was established at 277.3 which is above previous resistance. My initial target is set at 278.5 which was previous high (resistance area) in 15-min chart. As Nikkei and HangSeng are having small gain and tend to be flat, I do not expect a strong bull run in SIMSCI today.

SIMSCI 21-June-2006: Potential Short

So it sets to be a negative morning. Nikkei opened slightly positive and drifting down to negative territory now. No surprise for SIMSCI Futures. It is flat with negative biased. It is still too early to define direction for the day. I am watching it closely for trading opportunity.

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow

15-min Mini Dow
Finally , i got my new charting service up and running. I have been watching Mini Dow for opportunity. I have decided to perform paper trading for few days in order to get use of this new chart service. First entry is when Mini Dow broke recent downtrend and RSI making is positive divergence. Entry was triggered at 11022 and exit was set at 11041 which is previous high. Target hit. Gain +19 ticks. Second entry was set at 11054 when higher low in RSI is formed and Mini Dow broke count back entry . Signs of strength. Exit was set at 11090, previous high, resistance area. Target hit. Gain +36 ticks. Bigger profit was missed, however, the objective is to capture the strong move and exit at the known resistance level to protect profit.

Charting Headache Continues: No trade today

It is going to take sometime for my new chart service to be activated. Maybe it is time for me to take break after some winning trades for the past 2 weeks. I can't risk by doing day trading with delayed chart. I 'll be back when the chart is available to me again. Be a better trader today.

Monday, June 19, 2006

Charting headache: No trade today

I do not believe it. My broker just replaced their charting service which delays 2 bars. This has a big implication to my day trading strategy. I can't make a timely decision based on the delay chart. I have decided not to trade today in order to sort out the charting problem. This is a bad headache to me.
Anyway, SIMSCI is likely to be moving sideway if not profit taking after strong gain from last Friday. This can be observed first from Nikkei this morning.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Chart Eye: SIMSCI Futures : ended 16-June-2006

This is daily chart of SIMSCI futures. It broke out from existing downtrend channel last Friday after a strong day. It is currently facing resistance soon. Directional index has started ticking up after reaching oversold level. And trend index shows a same picture as well. Sentiment is improving though it is still remain negative. It is likely to see rebound rally, though downtrend is still intact.

Opportunist series: Stocks for 19-June-2006 onwards

This opportunist series is to capture stocks which experience extreme bearish sentiment and starts rally. Tight stop loss is implemented as broad market sentiment and trend remains bearish. I have found some counters for agressive trading style to capitalise in the rebound rally in the existing downtrend. Almost all of the stocks I have found are in down trend and negative sentiment. However, some of them are rebounding after reached extreme bearish sentiment. There are quite a few counters captured , however, most of them are trading near major resistance and Reward/Risk ratio less than 1. I have excluded them from consideration. I am watching at Star Pham, Midas and Statchipac.

Saturday, June 17, 2006

Chart Eye: Sesdaq daily trend : ended 16-June-2006

So we have seen a strong rally last Friday. It was expected to hear some voices in forums discussing 'Bull is back to action'. Well, I have decided again to do some analysis on the trend. And this time, I want do something interesting. Firstly, I am looking at daily trend of UOB Sesdaq index. Last week's rally put a pause to the heavy selling. Short term moving averages are ticking up. However, it is still far below long term moving averages. And there is, in fact, nothing much in term of trend change. Downtrend is still intact. From Directional analysis, negative sentiment is still hanging in the air, though it was ticking down at the end of last week, I do not see positive sentiment gaining strength. (Click on the chart to maximize it) If it is a little bit tough for trader to accept establishment of downtrend (Since, most of traders only recognize Bullish pattern), I have inverted the daily trend of UOB Sesdaq. The inverted trend indeed showing me a 'BUY' opportunity (in reality, a SELL, remember, this is a inverted chart) if I were to do trend trading. In fact, I am not impressed by the rally. Maybe, at least for now. My strategy will be sell on strength instead. The rally in some way, provides a chance to let go current holding of small cap.

Friday, June 16, 2006

SIMSCI 16-June-2006: Market close

There was a second entry opportunity to Long SIMSCI. Due to some personal commitment , I gave up the trading opportunity. Anyway, second entry was at 283.9 with potential exit at 284.8. It was a strong day for SG market, which in turn provides SIMSCI day trading profit oppportunities. I closed the day and the week in positive note again. Total gain for the week is +2.8 points.

RE:SIMSCI 16-June-2006: Potential Long:Trade Closed

12-min SIMSCI Futures
I have closed Long position at 283.1. After watching price action at the area of day high (283.4), uptrend seemed to be getting weaker. This does not mean a reversal is kicking in, it just prompts me for profit taking. Notice about DI+, similar weakness was observed as well. To confirm this decision, I turned to 9-min chart.
9-min SIMSCI Futures
A failure swing RSI was forming. This is the ugliest scene to me when holding Long position. Similiar situation was found in directional indicator as well. These conditions gave me a strong support to close my profitable Long position. I might be wrong which might miss out bigger profit in the afternoon session. However, day trading is all about discipline and timing, I do not act on expectation. In fact, at 1130pm, my position was already in-the-money. Not so bad for 2-hour trading, a positive Friday with +1.2 gain.

RE:SIMSCI 16-June-2006: Potential Long

Long position of SIMSCI has been established at 281.9. SIMSCI seems to be gaining strength again. Sentiment remains positive.

SIMSCI 16-June-2006: Potential Long

Another three digit gain for DJ again. Positive opening of Nikkei , SIMSCI as well as Hang Seng is just expected. In the first hour of trading, SIMSCI, in fact, drifting down from open price. With both Nikkei and Hang Seng stays more than +300 points gain, I am looking for opportunity to establish Long position in the weakness of SIMSCI movement.

Swing Trade for 16-June-2006: No candidate

Given yesterday's positive closing of STI and recent rally of U.S indices, I did a scan on my stock list for potential swing trade candidate. Few china counters appeared in rally with volume scan. However, none of them passed the directional and trend test for the time being and most of them are actually trading below 150 and 200 day moving average. I would prefer to stay away from stocks market today and wait for more confirmations about this rally (or maybe , just a relief rally).

Next trade is more important

I was having a walk after buying food from supermarket with my fiancee. I told her about my recent trades, I was pretty happy with my performance. She smiled and told me ' It is good, but next trade is more important'. This gives me some thoughts. Exactly, next trade is always more important. And the very next trade has totally nothing to do with our recent trades which we turned a profit or loss. However, human natures make us think it may. We will end up with over confident, or timid when making the next trade. Forget about your past trades. Keep the focus on the price action, and next trade is always more important. You have to give the best performance for the next trade, it might not be perfect, but it will be your best shot!

Thursday, June 15, 2006

RE:SIMSCI 15-June-2006: No trade

What a disappointing day. In fact , it was a 'do-nothing' day for me. SIMSCI futures was choppy and weak, even though Nikkie Futures were strong. No trade was made. I might be missing an entry at 275.4 around 415pm. I gave up the opportunity as I do not like the way market moved. The potential reward was not attractive enough for me to take risk. No trade.

RE:SIMSCI 15-June-2006: Potential Long: Twisted, Potential Short

[11:29am]Here we go. I am twisting my mind again. Nikkei reopen and failed to push up further. SIMSCI has formed a base line at 274.7 and making lower highs. It is rather weak. Now, I am watching for short position closely. It might end up with a choppy day instead. Update [12:37pm] Nikkei 12 min morning I did not initiate a Short position in SIMSCI before lunch break. Nikkei Futures does not give me the confidence to go short. In 9-min a positive divergence of RSI is observed and in 12-min, it starts to ticking up. Volume is drying. I might be wrong and again, missing profitable trade, however, the risk of being stop by SIMSCI gap up in the afternoon is too high for me to take. So far, SIMSCI intraday movement has been choppy. Though a descending triangle is formed, sentiment support is not strong enough. No position is established. SIMSCI 12-min

SIMSCI 15-June-2006: Potential Long

I am looking at Long position of SIMSCI this morning. However, it seems to be rather weak after morning gain. My buy order is still in the queue. Nikkei is closed for first session. I am watching for second session of Nikkei to confirm intraday sentiment. Bottom line, current intraday chart formation does not suggest me to go for short.

SIMSCI 15-June-2006: Positive open

So we have Dow ended with triple-digit gain and Nasdaq snapped losing streak last nite. Nikkei futures opened and trading around +300 points gain. SIMSCI opened with +3 point. It is a positive morning. It is still too early to decide trading direction now. I am watching the market closely now.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

SIMSCI 14-June-2006: Market closed

In fact, it will be profitable for short trades in the afternoon session, however, none of my pattern setup was formed successfully, I did not initiate second trade for today. In fact, I was a bit tired after morning's first trade. In today's trade, it showed the importance of intermarket analysis, even for day trading. SIMSCI follows Nikkei most of time (I have no idea about the reason). Not so bad, I closed the day in positive note again.

RE: SIMSCI 14-June-2006: Potential Long: Long Trade Closed

SIMSCI futures 12-min
This is 12-min SIMSCI chart. My LONG order was triggered a little bit higher at 274.3. My initial plan was 274.1, anyway, it was still below my maximum chase level. It was a nice morning, trailing stop had been moving upward, and in fact, by 1230pm my position was already in the money. I did a last check on Nikkei and decided to close the position at 275.8.
Nikkei Futures 12-min
This is 12-min Nikkei Futures. A potential failure swing formation was observed around 1230pm Singapore time. And at top, volume was not impressive enough. I decided to close my SIMSCI profit position. There might be bigger profit in the afternoon session, however, the current situation prompted me to protect profit. I will be looking for another opportunity in the afternoon. One trade closed. Gain +1.5 point

RE: SIMSCI 14-June-2006: Potential Long

I was looking at 274.1 to Long SIMSCI (before my trading platform is down for maintainance for half an hour). Nikkei starts second session with slightly positive tone. I see the intraday market is to be flat with positive biased. As at current condition, I am looking at LONG side.

SIMSCI 14-June-2006

Again , yes again , DJ closed in negative territory. Nikkei and SIMSCI followed as expected. However, it is very interesting to see Nikkei and SIMSCI indeed moving up from low opening. Intraday chart shows me a uptrend is building up for SIIMSCI, though it is too early to conclude now. It gives a feeling that these two asian markets are trying to shrug off the dirt caused by American counterpart. I am watching closely for possible trade setup.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 13-June-2006: Poor performance

The reversal sign of Nikkei futures before lunch break was a false signal. Nikkei futures has been losing -500 points before SIMSCI reopen for afternoon session. I have place a Short order before lunch break at 272.4. SIMSCI is likely to open with gap in the afternoon session.
After market reopen, my short order was not triggered as the gap is bigger then my setup price. I have been missing profitable trades recently. And my performance has been deteriorating as well. Wrong judgement calls were made. I am fortunate enough, my wrong judgement call did not cause any loss. However, it is equally bad when missing profitable trades. I have decided to step away from market now to prevent myself from chasing a trade. Fight another day.

RE: SIMSCI 13-June-2006: Short trade closed

I have closed my short position at break even point 273.1, SIMSCI failed to break 272.5 even though Nikkei was losing -300 points. After seeing Nikkei gained strength from -300 point loss, I have decided to exit before lunch break to prevent any gap up in the afternoon session. Gain +0.1 This decision might be wrong and miss out potential profit, however, safety is the priority. I am looking for another opportunity in the afternoon session.

SIMSCI 13-June-2006: Short trade

It was negative, first started from Japan, then HongKong. I am looking at short. In fact, short position has been established at 273.2.

Monday, June 12, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 12-June-2006: No Trade

It might be God's call. My broker's online trading platform is having some hiccup today. I do not like to trade when trading platform is unstable. This is unnecessary risk. Secondly, all patterns failed to form successfully and Nikkei and HangSeng remained flat most of time. Opportunity was found when RSI moving in overbought zone. I have given up the opportunity to establish Long position. I would call it a day. A boring day. No trade.

SIMSCI 12-June-2006: Awaiting setup

Sentiment for the first hour of trading is rather flat. There is no clear direction for the day. Nikkei and HangSeng are flat at the moment of writing this posting. From the development of chart now, there might be a chance of Long for intraday trading, though more information is needed to confirm this setup.

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Chart Eye: STI daily chart : Ended 09-June-2006

This is trend analysis of daily chart of STI. Downtrend is still intact, though there was rebound at the end of last week, that did not help much in term of trend change. There is no sign of recovery. Directional analysis wise, there was a slight up turn in directional element, however, it is still below trigger line. Negative sentiment is still dominating. No reason to consider any BUY for now.

Chart Eye: Sesdaq daily chart : Ended 09-June-2006

This is daily chart of Sesdaq. Nothing much has changed. There is no sign of recovery for small cap. Directional analysis shows a continuation of downward movement. Negative sentiment is still hanging in the air for now. Trend characteristics analysis shows intact downtrend with no sign of reversal. I am not interested in any stocks trading for the time being.

Chart Eye: SIMSCI daily chart Snapshot: Ended 09-June-2006

Before a new week get started, it is necessary to have a view of Futures market movement retrospectively. It is beautiful, I would say. A downtrend channel has not been violated at all since it was formed weeks ago. From daily chart, short term time frame, I would say, 'Downtrend is still intact'. There was a small rebound at the end of last week. I am not optimistic about this jump. Very interesting to know that, DJ sank into negative territory last friday, again. Yes, again. I am looking at area between 280 and 282.4 as resistance zone while immediate support level is around 270.7. This is to provide me a bigger picture during day trading. Here is what my chart eyes see Directional analysis: Downtrend intact, possibility of some rebounds exists as it reaches extreme area. Sentiment analysis: Remain Negative. Bearish for the time being.

Friday, June 09, 2006

SIMSCI 09-June-2006: Second trade: Long: Trade closed

I am twisting my mind again. After closing a lossing short position, I established a long position at 277.3.
I did not expect this as a strong run, my profit taking order was set at 278.2 which was triggered around 230pm. with strong presentation in 9-min chart, most likely I am missing out some bigger profit again. However, I did have some worries when looking at the spread of SIMSCI futures, it got a little bit wild sometimes with 3 ticks different, intraday volatility is strong. My initial profit taking target was day high 278.7 (which was hit after I closed my trade at 278.2).
Second trade of the day with +0.9 gain. I closed the day and the week with positive note.
I am facing a problem with profit target calculation. More works need to be done.

RE: SIMSCI 09-June-2006:Potential short: Lost trade

SIMSCI futures
Before SG market went for lunch break, I have decided to close my SIMSCI short position with a loss at 275.7 even though planned trailing stop was at 276.2. There were signals that contributed to this exit decision. From 9-min chart of SIMSCI, a positive divergence was observed, and it was , in fact, getting stronger. I was very uncomfortable to see positive divergence when having a open short position.
Nikkei225 Futures
Another strong reason to exit short position was from Nikkei225 Futures. Again, a positive divergence was observed. That was a scary scene. It was preparing to run up. In the event that intraday upward movement started, SIMSCI futures is likely to have a gap up in the afternoon session. I might be missing out potential profit, but, safety in the market is my objective. Fast decision made. One lost trade with -0.6 loss. After trade analysis:
SIMSCI Futures
In fact, my short position was not supposed to be established. This can be proven when doing analysis retrospectively. Before Short position was established, from 9 min chart, a positive divergence was formed. This is a sign of strength, and no short position should be established.

RE: SIMSCI 09-June-2006: Potential short

Short order is set at 275.1 level and it was triggered. Lower highs are observed with flat HangSeng. I discounted chances of strong rebound today. Market sentiment shows a flat with negative biased. Intrady Nikkei futures shows a downtrend is being formed as well.

SIMSCI 09-June-2006: Potential Short

DJ made a come back and closed +7 point after early loss. Some analyst starts calling bottom. I am holding a different opinion. It is still to early to define bottom. Back to day trading business, I am not bullish about SIMSCI today. In fact, it opened high, and subsequently trading below day high in the first hour. Nikkei futures behaves in the similar way. and it is almost flat at the point of writing this posting.
I am interested in looking for SHORT opportunity for now.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 08-June-2006: Potential short: Missed trade

At 130pm local time, Nikkei Futures has lost -600 points. This is bearish. I was looking at short SIMSCI at 275.3. The support of market crashes seems to be getting stronger. It was too fast, too furious. With Nikkei losing more than -500 points, the weaker SIMSCI followed with panic. My short order at 275.3 which was submitted in the morning was not triggered at all. And SIMSCI dipped below my maximum chase level. I have decided to forgo this trade as I am not used to chase a trade (In fact, I walked away from my workstation to avoid the temptation). A perfect plan, a disappointing execution. What a potential big profit, what a miss. Disappointed day indeed. No trade, 0 point.

SIMSCI 08-June-2006: Potential short

With DJ sank below 11,000, it is expected to see negative opening in Nikkei then followed by SIMSCI. At this point of time, for intraday time frame, downtrend is being defined. I am looking for price setup to complete in order to establish short position for today.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 07-June-2006: Potential Short: Trade Closed

This is 12-min chart for SIMSCI today From today's trade, I am convinced to admit that it is still long way to go before I can call myself a good trader. Again, I have made a mistake.
I have mixed up trading time frame. After trade execution , I switch to 9-min chart to observe possible early warning signal. In fact, no positve divergence was observed, but I made a decision of exit when RSI tick out from oversold zone at 14:24pm. That was a wrong decision. Exit decision should be made by looking at longer time frame (12-min in this case). I was afraid of missing profit, in other words, I was hungry of profit. My initial target was 280 (it was hit comfortably after I have closed the trade prematurely), instead I closed the short position at 281. Now , I am watching profit running away from me. That is trading. That is a bad trading.
It has been 3 consecutive day I am performing under average, which is supposed to be 1.3 point per trade. I can do better, but, it can only be done in the next trade. Trade closed with small and bitter gain + 0.7

RE: SIMSCI 07-June-2006: Potential Short

Short order was triggered at 281.7 as lower high was formed. Market is rather slow. Trailing stop is moving rapidly in order to catch small intraday movement

SIMSCI 07-June-2006: Potential Short

It sets to be a flat to negative day to me. Nikkei opened flat after overnight negative DJ. I am not optimistic about this opening. It shows to me the weakness of buyers. It is either no buying stay aside or sell. Looking at daily chart of SIMSCI , so far so good, downtrend is still intact. There was not downtrend channel violation at all.
So far, first hour trading sets a negative tone. I am looking for price setup for short selling.

Tuesday, June 06, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 06-June-2006: Missing Trade

I am doing some analysis retrospectively. However, this is neccessary. I missed a trade today. The main reason was due to weak HangSeng and Nikkei. A nice swing setup was appearing in front of me, and yet I was caught by prejudice of market sentiment. Right or wrong, it depends. I was preventing myself from possible losing trade, and trade off was missing a profitable trade.

RE: SIMSCI 06-June-2006: Ambiguous situation: No trade

What a boring day. Again, short stop order was not triggered and SIMSCI indeed made a new day high. I have canceled my order and called it a day. With Nikkei lost about -300 points, it seems to be not enough to pull SIMSCI down. All pattern failed to form sucessfully. There might be opportunity to Long SIMSCI, however, with still negative Nikkei and HangSeng, it is risky to trade against the sentiment today. No trade for today. 0 gain.

RE: SIMSCI 06-June-2006: Ambiguous situation

Another mind twisting day. After seeing the chart formation, I am looking at short level at 281.4 (modified from 281.1). SIMSCI is too weak to push up further.

SIMSCI 06-June-2006 : Ambiguous situation

It is very interesting to see SIMSCI opened low and moved higher in the first 45 minutes. It looks slightly positive. The drop was obviously contributed by reddish overnight DJ. It is an ambiguous situation now. SIMSCI refused to deep further. I would consider a long position or staying aside (no trade). There is a positve movement in SIMSCI, however, under performed HangSeng and Nikkei hold me down from establishing a Long position. I do not like to see -200 point loss in HangSeng and Nikkei yet, I am Long SIMSCI. I would prefer to observe further.

Monday, June 05, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 05-June-2006 : Potential Short: Trade closed

Trailing stop was moved to break even point when low of 284.6 is achieved. I was tempted to take profit, however, I decided to have a perfect execution of my plan without any emotional factor. Holding on the position with nearly 0 risk involved. I would admit that, it is tough to resist temptation of profit taking. However, treat this as a challege, to resist temptation is fun. This is part of enjoyment when trading the market. I enjoy the fun of market challege. By 350pm, my position is in-the-money. I have moved my trailing stop to 285.2.
Trade was closed at 355pm with exit at 285 after seeing a positive divergence of RSI in 9-min chart and a trend line break of RSI oversold zone in 12-min chart. Again, I might be missing bigger profit, in fact I was missing out bigger profit in this trade! However, the objective here is to capture the movement caused by market sentiment and profit from it. That is my trading. Gain +0.6. Tiny but sweet.
I have put myself into the challege. I have set a target of 26 points gain in SIMSCI trading at the end of this month. I hope this is not unreasonable. I am not interested in competing, this is the fun of challenging myself.

RE: SIMSCI 05-June-2006: Potential Short

Sell order was executed at 285.6 immediately after market reopen for afternoon session. However, selling force was not strong. It was hanging in the air with small flunctuation. U.S futures are in negative territory now. Watch out for Nikkei futures reopen at 330pm.

SIMSCI 05-June-2006: Potential Short

With negative biased sentiment. I am looking for price setup for possible short sell opportunity for intraday SIMSCI.
Market seems to be very quiet at this point of time.

Sunday, June 04, 2006

SIMSCI view ended 02-June-2006

It does not look better even after last Friday's rebound. SIMSCI futures is current stucked between support and resistance level. Immediate resistance level 289.5 while immediate support appears to be at 277.6 A downtrend channel is well formed. An analysis on SIMSCI futures can also be found at Traderswin Futures Trading Blog.

Trend analysis : STI & UOB Sesdaq

To evaluate market condition , I am always examining trend characteristics. Short term group moving averages continue drifting downward and stay below long term moving averages. There was a minimal rebound at the end of last week, however, it is still below trigger line. Directional analysis wise, downtrend strength is staying flat, while negative index is still dominating. There was a rebound at the end of last week, however, it was weak and staying below trigger line. The last note, STI is still trading below 150-day moving average. No positive sign is observed at this point of time.
UOB Sesdaq
It is rather similar to STI. I do not see positive sign of Sesdaq trend yet. Short term moving averages still staying below long term moving averages, though there seemed to be a rebound, it is still below trigger line. Directional index is showing negative value and moving below trigger line. These observations discount any rebound appeard last week. No sign of recovery at this point of time.

Friday, June 02, 2006

Week end 02-June-2006: After thought

It has been a week that I did not post any article about stocks trading. In fact, current singapore stocks market does not excite me much. I position myself as a swing trader for stocks and day trader for SIMSCI futures. Currently, I can't find any good setup for stocks. And sentiment is not encouraging for stocks trading as well. I mean both Long and Short. There is a time to trade, there is a time not to. The best choice for me now is staying away from stocks. As a private trader, my job is trading. It is important to develop a skill for both stocks and derivatives (be it Futures/Options etc) trading. I am not making myself sounds like a professional trader, in reality I am not. Futures trading provides me a source of income during correction phase of stocks market. I admit that it takes a little bit more effort and skills to trade futures. Trading is never easy to me. As a private trader, my objective is profit. Profit comes when a planned trade is executed properly. I cover myself well when making a wrong decision in trading. I read postings in forums. It surprised me how strong is the bargain hunting instinct inside the heart of traders (or trader turned investor after holding losing positions home), and the level of ignorance of risk management. There is nothing wrong of bargain hunting. Do it with trend analysis. Bargain hunting when a new trend is developing, but not because it looks cheap. My philosophy of trading is , high will get higher, so cheap can get cheaper. Bargain hunting blindly is just a express way to ruin your bank account. Next week, it is going to be another 'out of stock' week to me. Friday's rebound is just not convincing to act in stocks trading. I will be focusing in SIMSCI futures trading.

RE: SIMSCI 02-June-2006: Potential short: LongTrade Closed

This is 12-min chart of SIMSCI. It is indeed a good day. After Short setup failed to form, I observed a Long opportunity. Long position was established at 284.6. Initial target was 287. To be frank, I thought the target was too far away. I was obviously wrong. Target was exceeded. Trade was closed at 288.1. As target was achieved, I turned to 9-min chart to follow the fast move. Failure swing was found in overbought zone. This gives a strong signal for me to take profit. Market might continue moving up, however, the objective here is to captured the intraday sentiment and profit from it. Gain +3.5 In the morning, I was caught in a prejudiced situation to insist of short opportunity. It did not take me long to decide twisting my mentality to accept the reversal of trend. Trade with the fact, instead of personal opinion is proven to be profitable in this case.

RE: SIMSCI 02-June-2006: Potential short

I was waiting for a descending triangle to be formed in order to setup my short position. However, trend reversed. Descending triangle formation was failed, and downtrend line was broken upward. Higher lows formed a uptrend line. A swing trade setup is completed. I am now looking at Long position at 284.6.

SIMSCI 02-June-2006: Potential short

The market is not as good as the crowd were expected. With Nikkei moved from positive to negative and Hang open flat, I am in fact not expecting a rally in SG market. Sentiment in the first hour of trading is flat with negative biased. I am looking at possible Short side instead.

Thursday, June 01, 2006

RE: SIMSCI 01-June-2006: Potential Long

It was a dissapointed day. Sentiment changed from positive to flat and then negative. No position was established. To be exact, one opportunity was missed and two were ignored. It is the challenged of real time trading. I do not know what is going to happen at the right side of chart, experience and skills makes the judgement call. Short entry at 11:24am was missed. Subsequently a descending triangle was formed, it was ignored as RSI is diving in oversold zone. The last opportunity was a bearish flag, it was again ignored as entry level is too closed to day support level. No trade for today. Gain 0 point.

SIMSCI 01-June-2006: Possible long

Sentiment is positive biased. Though not bullish. HangSeng futures turned from negative open to positive while Nikkei futures stays above positive. I am looking for price setup in SIMSCI for intraday Long position.

SIMSCI view ended 31-May-2006

Before market open, I am looking at overview of SG market. Analysis on SIMSCI futures can be found at Traderswin Futures Trading blog. The overnight rebound at U.S does not contribute a strong bullish view. For stocks, it might be a time to sell on strength. I am not looking for any stocks trading for the time being. Focus will be still in SIMSCI trading.