Better Trading

I have already moved.......

2006-08-21T15:19:00.000+08:00

I am kinda surprised as I still see regular traffic to this blog. Thanks ! Buddies, I have moved to www.tradergav.com I got plenty of updates there. And I have made some transition of my trading strategy lately. And I have also migrated all my SIMSCI trading journal to tradergav.com. See ya there.

RE: Better Trading Blog has moved!

2006-08-20T00:23:00.000+08:00

I have moved my better trading blog toWWW.TRADERGAV.COM For readers who subscribed to my feed via email, please do submit your subscription again at www.tradergav.com. subscription box if you would like to continue receiving update from better trading blog. Feed subscription is meant for readers who would like to receive daily update of my trading blog. I do not resale or sending out any marketing/commercial material to subscribers, you can have my words. please do leave a comment to me if you are having problem with feed subscription or viewing the site. See you there.

Better Trading Blog has moved!

2006-07-30T21:56:00.000+08:00

Yes, Better Trading Blog has moved to its own space Tradergav.com I'll be keeping this blog alive and old postings will still available here. New home and better tool to keep my journals.

RE: Dummy day trading 28-Jul-2006:SIMSCI: No trade

2006-07-28T16:32:00.000+08:00

Look at the chart , you know what I am going to say. No trade.

RE:Dummy day trading : 28-Jul-2006: No trade

2006-07-28T14:54:00.000+08:00

TIMSCI was hovering around moving averages and did not provide rewarding entry. No trade was taken.

Dummy day trading 28-Jul-2006

2006-07-28T10:56:00.000+08:00

Good morning! Bulls made a cheat yesterday on Dow futures. It headed up in the opening, and pressed by bears. I did not make any trade yesterday. A quick one. SIMSCI is moving above intrady moving average. Though I see some weakness in the uptrend, it is not strong enough for me to go Short. TIMSCI is still moving in intraday uptrend as well. I am not considering any SHORT for this morning. By the way, I am looking at August contract for both index futures.

Re: Dummy day trading 27-Jul-2006

2006-07-27T13:38:00.000+08:00

Alrite, I am being a loser today. In fact, I did not pay much attention to the market. Instead, I was day dreaming, and doing some stupid work out of trading. Long opportunities appeared. Simple and profitable entries, and yet, no trade was taken. Continue doing this, I will be hungry to death someday. Anyway, here is the 15-min chart of MSCI Taiwan index futures.

Dummy day trading 27-Jul-2006

2006-07-27T08:58:00.000+08:00

It was an choppy day for DJ. No trade was done yesterday. SIMSCI and TIMSCI look interesting. Both opened low and starts moving up. Though the regional market sentiment is rather flat at the moment. I will only look at Long side if I were to establish any position for this morning.

Dummy day trading 26-Jul-2006 II: Mini Dow

2006-07-26T22:44:00.000+08:00

'Crude futures rise after steeper-than-forecast decline in U.S. gasoline inventories' 'Oil prices rise after gasoline inventory shortfall.'

Are these news related to day trading? Well, it might be. At least , I am seeing intraday Dow futures starts to turn down and in fact broken uptrend line. Though I have yet to have complete setup for the day, I tend to look at Short side.

Dummy day trading 26-Jul-2006

2006-07-26T10:01:00.000+08:00

I am looking forward to a 'do-nothing' day again for SG futures market. I am not interested in trading in this condition i.e moderate U.S gain, flat opening in Nikkei and low volume in local futures market. It is difficult to find high-R trade in the market with these conditions.

RE: Dummy day trading 25-Jul-2006

2006-07-25T23:33:00.000+08:00

No trade was done for SiMSCi and TimSCi today. It was indeed an boring day, though SiMSCi did have a spike at the last 15 min before market closed. Dow futures was down at the opening, and subsequently spike up. Bulls did not hold the strength, intraday downtrend continues. I am watching for possible short entry for Mini Dow.

Dummy day trading 25-Jul-2006

2006-07-25T10:00:00.000+08:00

Good morning! I am a silly person. I like to think too much and make things complicated. My objective today is to keep thing simple.

Alrite, 3-digit gain of DJ pushed gaps up around Asian markets as expected. I am looking at the tone of regional markets. Pretty positive, Nikkei gains near +300 points and HangSeng is fatter by around +200 points. SIMSCI looks interesting today, while I see TIMSCI having some wild swings. Ok, I am looking for Long opportunity of SIMSCI, though I am still waiting for entry point to completely form.

By the way, I rejected few comments by some readers (named annonymous) due to the language (some chinese dialects) used in the comments. Thanks for reading and do give me some comments, of course, in simple english. :-)

Change

2006-07-24T20:51:00.000+08:00

I have made some major changes to my system after studying and reading books and blogs recently. The change was not caused by recent losses, after all, I am still in pretty nice profitable situation. :-) The reason behind this change is the seek of simplicity. Yes, I was in fact confused by my own system, and there is really a urgency to keep things simple. The change is done mostly on entry part of the system. I am basically a trend following person and I will still stick with percent risk model for money management part. Instead of looking at shorter timeframe for day trading, I intend to lengthen the time frame to 30-min chart. Most of my entry rules are inspired by Maoxian. I am basically looking at reversal up/down bar or insider bar for entry opportunity. Nothing much in this posting. Hope the simplicity works.

TIMSCI 24-Jul-2006: Short Trade closed

2006-07-24T13:15:00.000+08:00

Short position of MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) was established at 259.1. Initial stop loss 259.6 was triggered with 1-R loss. "The wrong way to play it would be to attempt to “pick a bottom,” or fade the market; blindly enter short without waiting for a good spot; getting short without setting a stop, etc. The list of errors goes on and on, but people mainly make those three big mistakes. Traders who know themselves, who have common sense, who are disciplined, and who have the ability to keep it simple will do just fine. Remember that many people in the market are either uneducated or uninformed. And most of the few who are educated and informed waste their time building “scenarios” and end up defeating themselves by trying to outsmart the market." - Maoxian

Day trading watch list: 24-Jul-2006

2006-07-24T09:57:00.000+08:00

First hour trading shows a pretty clear picture for SG futures market. Here is the summary. At this point of time, I would only looking at Short opportunity.

Intraday Trend	MSCI Taiwan Index Futures	MSCI Singapore Index Futures
Longer term	Down	Down
Medium term	Down	Down
Short term	Down	Down
Recent High	261.1	278.8
Recent Low	256.4	276.8
Trading direction	Short	Short

SIMSCI only serves as a reference for the time being. I am not trading SIMSCI for the time being until I see improvement of volume and volatility.

Mini Dow & Gold futures: Short opportunities.

2006-07-22T09:54:00.000+08:00

Mini dow was having a negative opening, and subsequently moving laterally. There was opportunity to established short position, however, with tiny profit. The risk of being stopped out was high. Gold reversed its initial movement after positive opening. Intraday trend turned down. Shorting opportunity apeared.

Day trading II : 21-Jul-2006

2006-07-21T22:09:00.000+08:00

Looks like we have some action in the futures market today. Here is the summary of current intraday trend during market open.

Intraday trend	Mini Dow	Gold Futures
Intermediate term	Down	Up
Short term	Down	Up
Recent High	11026	644.5
Recent Low	10826	621.2

Chop! 21-Jul-2006

2006-07-21T17:29:00.000+08:00

Well, just as expected in the morning, we had a choppy , boring trading day in SG futures market. No trade was done.

Looking at volume of SIMSCI, I can fully understand why major oversea broking house like Interactive Broker does not bother to offer customers to trade. With just around 2000 contracts traded in a trading day. I guess, there is still long way to go to promote SIMSCI futures trading. I do not incline to relate this to market condition, it is just a matter of industry interest over this product.

Alrite, result reviewed. I got my first negative week. Making two losses in the the first two days of the week, and subsequently caught up by some personal works or did not see rewarding trading opportunity.

Day trading 21-Jul-2006

2006-07-21T09:12:00.000+08:00

I will have to attend a meeting, no trading in the morning. Anyway, here is the view of this morning's market. It looks like we are going to have a choppy day.

Intraday trend	MSCI Taiwan Index Futures	MSCI Singapore Index Futures
Long term	Lateral	Lateral
Intermediate term	Lateral	Lateral
Short term	Lateral	Down
Recent High	267.8	284.4
Recent Low	262.8	276.8

No trade 20-Jul-2006

2006-07-20T17:42:00.000+08:00

No trade was taken today, given the big gap up this morning, there was no riskwarding opportunity to enter SG futures market. Apparently, today might be a good day to do some puntings in SG stocks market. That's not my game. My trading performance seems to be stalled. I gotta do something to get out of the current situation.

Day trading 20-Jul-2006

2006-07-20T09:41:00.000+08:00

We have 3-digit gain , over +200 points in DJ last nite. It is likely to have some bullish hangover in Asian markets. SIMSCI volume is building up in the first half an hour, though it is still not impressive. Chart wise, I would prefer SIMSCI over TIMSCI for day trading today. I will be looking at Long only for this morning.

Here is the summary

	MSCI Taiwan Index Futures	MSCI Singapore Index Futures
Longer term	Down	Lateral
Medium term	Up	Up
Short term	Up	Up
Recent High	265.9	287.1
Recent Low	N.A	N.A

Lecture notes series: Percent Risk Model

2006-07-19T17:07:00.000+08:00

I developed a habit of writing down whatever I learnt, this helps me to 'burn' the information into my mind. I did this during my school time as well. I decided to jot down what I have read from books so far in Lecture Note series. As mentioned in my previous posting, I am following Percent Risk Model for my position sizing. Of course, this is not the only model available, it is just the approach I applied in my business. I have amended the approach to suit my style. Basically, I will define initial stop level base on chart. It can be support/resistance level, straight trend line, Count back line or swing high/low.

Definition:

RISK - the point at which I will get out of the position in order to preserve my capital. It is x percent of my trading equity, for example, I will risk not more than 2% of trading equity in any trade.

Percent Risk Model - Controlling my position size as a function of the risk.

For example, with account size of $50,000, 2% of $50,000 is $1000. That means in any trade, I shall not risk more than $1000 with this account size.If I got a Long signal for SIMSCI at 289 and I have figured out from chart, proper stop loss level is at 287.5. On one contract basis, this trade requires $300 risk. With maximum risk amount $1000 available to me, I will be able to buy ($1000/$300=3.33) 3 contracts in this trade.

I quote a portion of Dr. Van Tharp's explaination from his book

'Just how much risk should you accept per position with risk position sizing? Your overall risk using risk position sizing depends upon the size of the stops you've set to preserve your capital and the expectancy of the system you are trading.'

Here goes on the explaination :

'if you are trading other people's money, you probably should risk less than 1 percent per position. If you are trading your own money, your risk depends upon your own comfort level. Anything under 3 percent is probably fine, if you are risking over 3 percent, you are a "gun-slinger" and had better understand the risk you are taking for the reward you seek.'

He explained the relationshiop with system expectancy as well:

'if you have high expectancies in your system (i.e your reliability is above 50% and your reward to risk ratio is 3 or better), then you can probably risk a higher percentage of your equity fairly safely'.

The percent risk model is the first model that gives trader a legitimate way to make sure that a 1-R risk means the same for each item he is trading. The advantage of this model is, it allows both large and small accounts to grow steadily. It equalizes performance in the portfolio by the actual risk. On the other hand, the disadvantage will have you to reject some trades because they are too risk.

Trading Business plan 101

2006-07-19T11:22:00.000+08:00

I have been doing some thinking and studies over the past weeks. I had some good days and some bad days over the past 2 months. Well, I guess, I'd better figure out the details of managing the trading business while I am still in nice profitable situation rather than searching for 'holy grail' for survival after hitting losing streaks. At least, mentally, I am not under heavy stress now.

The R-multiple concept hits me well on the head. I have figured out the importance of it in order to survive in this business for long. Well, at least for now, this is the best approach that comes to my mind. I am currently following Percent Risk Model. I am not trading a million-dollar-sized account now. So, the objective now is to grow the account as soon, and as much as possible. Well said, tough job though. I am striving to improve and maintain my system with high expectancy and frequency of trade.

So the first thing in the morning is to figure out how much I am going to risk and position size to be taken for the day.

This is second thing I will be doing every morning before start of a new trading day. Basically, the idea is not to go against the trend. Some profitable movements in short term might be missed out, however, I would prefer to go along with the trend for long term survival.The time frame are only refering to intraday trend of the day. I am not looking at longer time frame like daily , weekly or monthly. This is shuold simplify my job during the trading day where I will be only concentrating on the last thing of trading - entry and exit point.

This is for my day trading business. Nothing fancy. The last thing I will say in this entry : " Hey, Don't Buck the trend - lah"

	MSCI Taiwan Index Futures	MSCI Singapore Index Futures
Longer term	Down	Down
Medium term	Lateral	Lateral
Short term	Up	Up
Recent High
Recent Low

Futures trading 19-Jul-2006

2006-07-19T09:04:00.000+08:00

It is likely to see a choppy trading day for MSCI Taiwan and potential Long opportunity for SIMSCI, though I would prefer to confirm this after getting more signals, it might end up with choppy style as well. It is earning session again, let's see how far can SIMSCI go.

I will not trade in the morning given some last minute meeting to attend.

Market recap 18-Jul-2006

2006-07-18T22:21:00.000+08:00

STI closed higher? Ok, it did. It closed higher than yesterday. Good news, it is still below 12-day, 50-day and 200-day EMA. I see some space to move towards recent low, which is 2277 aread. Nothing much about UOB Sesdaq. Still ding-dong between 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Just be patient to watch for development during this result relaesing season. Recent low is around 90 area. I am interested in looking at Short side if the support area is broken.

RE: TIMSCI 18-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

2006-07-18T13:04:00.000+08:00

It seems like things were not going so well with me this week. Yup, another losing trade today. Short position of TIMSCI was established at 255.6, stop loss has been moved accordingly and it was triggered at 256.8 at the last trading hour of MSCI Taiwan Futures for the day. It seems to be a strong intraday support at 256.5 area. Even with -300 points loss in Nikkei, TIMSCI was still holding well. Is this a force of rebound after previous days' losses? No idea. Anyway, there is nothing much I can do other than exit the trade if things are not working in my favour. One trade closed with -1.2 point loss (-0.89R). This should be the only trade of the day. I will be spending my time reading for the rest of the day.

Futures trading 18-Jul-2006

2006-07-18T09:33:00.000+08:00

After watching first half an hour action of TIMSCI (MSCI Taiwan), SIMSCI and Nikkei futures, I will be interested in looking at Short side of TIMSCI. Nikkei Futures is losing more than -200 points, it is a little bit tough for me to be bullish. SIMSCI is having some upward movement, however, I am not keen in Long, at least at this point of time. It is likely to be choppy (with light volume,very much possible). I will be reviewing the situation of SIMSCI in the later of the day.

Market recap 17-Jul-2006

2006-07-18T08:45:00.000+08:00

It is not a nice picture for STI. It , in fact, failed to stay above 50-day moving average and closed below 200-day moving average. And it formed a lower high. It is a bit difficult for me to stay bullish. I would prefer to stay at Short side. In addition, looking at stochastics, it is yet to enter oversold zone. UOB sesdaq is on the line. It stays around on 50-day moving averages. It is likely for Sesdaq to ding-dong between 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Not so good for small cap, but I am not over bearish. I guess, a little bit patience is needed.

RE: TIMSCI 17-Jul-2006: Short trade closed :chart

2006-07-18T00:21:00.000+08:00

This is 15-min chart of MSCI Taiwan Index Futures (TIMSCI). It was easy to observe price set-ups were all for Short. I entered with entry and missing out good profit and taking silly losses. I have been reading money management stuffs from Van Tharp and other web blogs. Thanks to TraderMike who has a well written entry on Position sizing. I am practising R-Multiples as introduced by Dr.Van Tharp for position sizing and evaluate my system expectancy. Basically, the idea is to express all of my profits and losses in terms of my initial risk(R). For example, if my risk for each trade is $300, then if I made $3000, then I have 10R gain. On the other hand, if I closed my trade with $150 loss, then I will have an 0.5R loss. I learnt about the concept of expectancy. To make it simple, expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win(or to lose) per dollar at risk. Here is the formula:

Expectancy= (Probability of Win x Average Win) - (Probability of Loss x Average Loss)

More on this topic in my future posting.

RE: TIMSCI 17-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

2006-07-17T14:19:00.000+08:00

Short position of TIMSCI was established at 258.2. Initial stop was set at 259.8 which was subsequently triggered. One trade closed with -1.6 point loss which converted into -1.37R loss (uh! ugly). I should not have allowed the trade to be place since the initial risk was more than 1R. What was going on here? Second problem, I did not wait for lower high to form completely, the decision was made after looking at some candles (uh! stupid). This is a good but painful example to show how does a trade with correct setup, but wrong entry point can hurt my trading account. Ugly trade. Silly action.

In fact, there was another opportunity when a descending triangle was formed. I did not take the trade after making a -1.37R loss within a day. I decided to close the day with negative.

Chart will be posted later

Day trading for 17-Jul-2006

2006-07-17T09:07:00.000+08:00

Day trading view:

TIMSCI is having some upward movement in an existing downtrend. I am not interested in chasing the bull. Instead, I am looking for opportunity to establish short position if the downtrend is not violated.

SIMSCI, bearish. Nice downtrend. It is likely to trade above 2,000 contracts in the first hour trading. I will be only looking at possible short position for today.

Article read: Master the Four Fears of Trading

2006-07-16T10:12:00.000+08:00

Ahead of another new week, here is an great article to prepare myself. Master the Four Fears of Trading Merriam-Webster's dictionary defines fear as "an unpleasant, often strong emotion caused by anticipation or awareness of danger, going on to explain that fear...implies anxiety and usually the loss of courage." This definition of fear is useful in helping define the issues that traders face when coping with fear. The reality is that all traders feel fear at some level, but the key is how we prepare to address our concerns related to taking on risk as a trader. In this article I will review four major fears experienced by traders, and I'll take it a step further by noting how the outcomes of these fears create undesirable trading behaviors. Basically, my aim is to have you walk away with an understanding of these dangers so you can and implement strategies that will address your fears and let you get on with your trading plan........ Full article can be found at bigtrends.com

TIMSCI 14-Jul-2006: Short trade closed: Chart

2006-07-14T12:28:00.000+08:00

This is 15-min chart of MSCI Taiwan index Futures (TIMSCI). Nice downtrend setup and short entry. No trade for the rest of the day. Though I was having two losing days in this week, I manage to close the day and the week in positive note.

RE:MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) 14-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

2006-07-14T11:12:00.000+08:00

TIMSCI short position of 263.8 is covered at 262.1 which was a planned target. In fact, a descending triangle was formed. and the calculated target for descending triangle was around 262 as well. I might missed out bigger profit, however, I would prefer to take profit based on planned target level. One trade closed with + 1.7 points (1.26R) gain. Chart will be posted after market closed.

MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) 14-Jul-2006: Short position

2006-07-14T10:42:00.000+08:00

From 15-min chart, downtrend is established. MSCI Taiwan index futures (TIMSCI) is trading below 12-p, 21-p and 30-p EMA. I am only looking for SHORT position. Short position has been established at 263.8. I have removed all indicators but moving averages to keep myself clear and focus on price action and trend only. I do not expect this decision to deteriorate trading performance. Though I would say, I am still practising this approach. Intraday support area is found at area of 262.

I do not trade SIMSCI futures today, given first hour volume is only around 1,500 contracts traded.

Trading for 14-Jul-2006: Potential shorts

2006-07-14T09:10:00.000+08:00

Great. Another 3-digit loss in DJ last nite. :-) From the intraday trend perspective, I would be only looking at SHORT for today. For Nikkei futures, MSCI Taiwan, and MSCI Singapore. This is trade setup. My job now is looking for entry and stop points. I hope the market doesn't run away without me.

I was reading Maxian.com yesterday. I got a feeling of being slapped on the face. I have been complicated my analysis unnecessary. The basic of trading should 'Buy it when it is going up, sell it when it is going down.' Though this statement is too loose in term of trading entry, it basically tells me, looking at bigger picture, looking at the trend, trade the direction of the market, as simple as that.

I quote a paragraph from Maoxian.com

'The wrong way to play it would be to attempt to "pick a bottom," or fade the market; blindly enter short without waiting for a good spot; getting short without setting a stop, etc. The list of errors goes on and on, but people mainly make those three big mistakes.

Traders who know themselves, who have common sense, who are disciplined, and who have the ability to keep it simple will do just fine. Remember that many people in the market are either uneducated or uninformed. And most of the few who are educated and informed waste their time building "scenarios" and end up defeating themselves by trying to outsmart the market. '

Trading should be simple. Really, it should be.

Confession

2006-07-13T16:57:00.000+08:00

I had a tendency to put in third trade of the day around 430pm. I did not do that. After realising I was in fact walking towards self-sabotage stage. Self-sabotage basically means I have the tendency to repeat the same mistakes over and over again. I would say it has been an bad week for me with loss about -0.82R , though I am still in black (profitable) for July, I am still up by 1.66R. Ego was troubling me.

Looking at the chart carefully, volume was low through out the day and spread was wide (3 to 4 ticks!). The condition does not favour my trading strategy. My trading performance is deteriorated after I start increasing frequency of trading (from 1 trade to 2 trades each day). I tend to be giving myself rooms to make mistake. Secondly, I have been putting myself under the pressure to achieve my monthly target. It is time to focus on quality again.

After all, the objective of trading is to improve the Expectancy of my system and generate more trades at the same time.

Before I achieve that, welcome to the world of trading psychology

RE: SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: 2nd Short trade closed

2006-07-13T15:08:00.000+08:00

Second opportunity was found in SIMSCI after it opened with a gap down in the afternoon session. I have waited until the first candle closed below support area 286.4. Short position was established at 286.2. Stop loss was set at 287, I would like to see the gap being filled before I decided to exit the short position.

Nikkei had loss around -200 points in the afternoon. I was watching for HangSeng to help in pushing the selling sentiment further.

Even with more than -200 loss in HangSeng futures, SIMSCI refused to go down further. Stop loss was triggered after the afternoon session gap was filled. And RSI is making higher lows.

One trade closed with -0.8 points loss.

Another losing day for me. with total loss of -0.64R

RE: SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

2006-07-13T12:24:00.000+08:00

Short position of SIMSCI has been closed at 287.2. Given Nikkei, HangSeng and SIMSCI are all pausing and reluctant to sell off further. In fact, Nikkei futures is trying to make a higher low. There might be another chance in the afternoon session, I chose to bail out before lunch. Watch out for next opportunity. One trade closed with +0.3 gain.

RE: SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: Short position.

2006-07-13T11:40:00.000+08:00

I negated the chance of going Long on SIMSCI futures. Instead, I saw a chance of intrady Nikkei to be toppish before lunch break and HangSeng futures continues losing more than -100 points. Short position of SIMSCI has been established at 287.5. Intraday support is likely at 286.4 area. I am watching stop loss closely.

SIMSCI 13-Jul-2006: Potential swing up

2006-07-13T10:17:00.000+08:00

To be frank, I am pretty happy with the 3-digit loss/gain in DJ. These conditions provide force to move SG market. I hope to see an trending day for SIMSCI today, either up or down.

SIMSCI had a gap down at the opening, There is an possibility of upward swing, though it is still too early to define. After first hour of SG market , both Nikkei and HangSeng futures turn into positive territory despite negative opening. I am watching closely on SIMSCI futures.

With reviewing my past day trading performance, better performance was found when SIMSCI was experiencing better volume (i.e trading around 2,000 contracts in the first hour) or with day volume near 5,000 contracts traded. The worst performance (excluding my psychological weakness of making unnnecessary trades), was during low volume period of SIMSCI.

Of course, I am not tying my performance to volume, I truely acknowledge my psychological weakness., I am doing statistical work to find any possiblity to improve my trading performance.

RE: SIMSCI 12-JUL-2006: No trade

2006-07-12T17:48:00.000+08:00

The result of guarding the quality of my trading, no trade was made today. It was a choppy day with low volume, I would say. Day volume is just more than 3000 contracts. There were selling at the end of morning session , however, sellers strength were weak. In the afternoon session, though SIMSCI futures started rebounding, a possible entry was at 289.1. I saw few levels of resistance. None of my setup was completed. No trade was done.

SIMSCI 12-JUL-2006

2006-07-12T09:17:00.000+08:00

Shrugging off yesterday's losing trades, I am back to business. DJ had an interesting session yesterday, It was a selling in the first half and turned into buying mood at the end. DJ was up around +31 points. SIMSCI opened with a small gap and intraday trying to form an uptrend, it is yet to be confirmed. I am waiting for setup to complete before considering any position. My concern is Nikkei futures. It opened higher and drifting down. Intraday down trend is formed. Not so healthy sentiment. It might be another choppy day.

Today's objective, again, trade with quality, not so much about quantity.

SIMSCI Trade recap 11-JUL-2006

2006-07-11T17:39:00.000+08:00

After reading the chart retrospectively, mistakes were found. Mistakes were found in the second trade. While for first trade, false breakout is expected portion of breakout trading. In the second trade, stop loss calculation was wrong, instead of 289.5, correct stop loss level should be at 289.7, if short entry was at 288.9. This is merely a chart reading mistake. Another mistake was found at entry level. Since day low/high serves as support/resistance level most of time, short position should be place below day low which was 288.7, instead of 288.9. I was too eager to establish short position.

RE: SIMSCI 11-JUL-2006: 2nd trade: Short trade closed

2006-07-11T15:23:00.000+08:00

It is indeed not so good day to me. I have two losing trades today. Second trade was a SHORT on SIMSCI at 288.9. After the spike of afternoon session opening, SIMSCI looked weak. Trailing stop was moved to 289.5 and triggered. Instead, a 'W' bottom is in the making and RSI starts making higher lows and MACD moving above trigger line. Second trade closed with -0.6 point loss. Trade summary: Direction: Short Entry: 288.9 Exit: 289.5 P/L: -0.6 points. That's all for the day. No trade will be made to avoid any potential emotional trading.

RE: SIMSCI 11-JUL-2006: Long position: Trade closed

2006-07-11T13:10:00.000+08:00

It was a disappointed trade. Nikkei failed to push up further, instead, it formed a lower high, which does not look good to me. I have exited Long position of SIMSCI at 289.7. Initial stop loss was at 289.3. One trade closed: -0.2 loss Trade summary: Direction: Long Entry: 289.9 Exit: 289.7 P/L: -0.2

RE: SIMSCI 11-JUL-2006: Long position

2006-07-11T11:45:00.000+08:00

After seeing Nikkei futures recovering again, and SIMSCI futures breaking up day high, I have established a Long position at 289.9. Bull strength is not significantly strong, I am watching stop loss closely. Intraday resistance level seems to be at 292 area.

SIMSCI 11-JUL-2006

2006-07-11T08:46:00.000+08:00

Nikkei Futures seems to be breaking a descending triangle in 10-min chart with failure of RSI. I expect it to lose a little bit more. SIMSCI, being one of the weak index in the region is likely to follow any fluctuation in Nikkei and HangSeng. It is pretty hard for me to be bullish, look at yesterday's movement, all the gain in the morning were given away, with good volume support. It is still too early for day trading. I am getting the feel of market sentiment now.

Futures market recap 10-JUL-2006

2006-07-10T17:28:00.000+08:00

It was a roller coaster day for SIMSCI. Afternoon session opened with a spike after Nikkei futures gained around 200 points. However, the upward running was not sustainable. Afternoon session did not provide opportunity for short entry for day trading as well. The selling in the afternoon session was supported by volume, which eventually gave back all the gain in the earlier session.

SIMSCI 10-JUL-2006: Morning trades: chart

2006-07-10T12:41:00.000+08:00

Well, it is a little messy for the postings today. A little bit too much huh. Here is the chart of SIMSCI for my morning trades. Did I miss out bigger profit? Yes, I did. Was that a wrong decision to exit the trade? No. It is about plan execution. I can't afford to be greedy and being undecisive when day trading. I learnt this from experience. So, exit the trade when target is achieved. If I work hard, and smart, market will pay me well. By the way, I am still feel sad about France's loss.

RE: SIMSCI 10-JUL-2006: Second trade: Long trade closed

2006-07-10T12:19:00.000+08:00

Target for the second long position is achieved at 291.7 which is below intraday resistance level. Second trade closed with +1 point. Trade summary: Direction: Long Entry: 290.7 Exit: 291.7 P/L: +1 Nikkei is running strong. I am watching for possible second trade in the afternoon session. That's all for my morning work. Time for lunch break.

RE: SIMSCI 10-JUL-2006: Second trade: Long

2006-07-10T11:58:00.000+08:00

After the failure of first trade, I was looking at second opportunity. An ascending triangle was formed with RSI making higher lows and MACD moving above trigger line. Another main reason to go Long of SIMSCI was rally of Nikkei futures from its low opening. Nikkei managed to recoup its morning losses from -200 points to less than -100 point. Long position was established at 290.7.

RE: SIMSCI 10-Jul-2006: Long position: Trade closed

2006-07-10T11:09:00.000+08:00

The pattern failed to move as expected, Long position of SIMSCI was closed at 290.2. This trade was a mistake. I was focusing on pattern formation, and ignored the fact that 12-p EMA is still under 21-p EMA. In fact, setup was not completed. One trade closed with loss: -0.1 point. Trade summary: Direction: Long Entry: 290.3 Exit: 290.2 P/L: -0.1 After the failure of flag pattern, a double tops pattern is formed. I am watching for another trading opportunity.

RE: SIMSCI 10-Jul-2006: Long position

2006-07-10T10:45:00.000+08:00

SIMSCI futures managed to break above the flag formed since 920am. Long position has been established at 290.3. Intraday resistance seems to be at 292 area.

SIMSCI 10-JUL-2006

2006-07-10T09:13:00.000+08:00

Well, that's really too bad for France to lose in penalty. Alright, back to business. As expected, SIMSCI again gapped down during open, but it is moving up now after opening low. Nikkei is losing more than -200 points. On news front, Nippon market is expecting rate hike in Japan this week. There should be some actions on SIMSCI futures today, though I have not see a clear direction now. And of course, action can only be after my breakfast. Today's objective: Trade with quality, not quantity.

RE: SIMSCI 07-JUL-2006: 2 trades closed:Chart

2006-07-07T16:44:00.000+08:00

SIMSCI 1st trade: Short SIMSCI 2nd trade: Long

RE:SIMSCI 07-JUL-2006:2nd trade: Long trade closed

2006-07-07T16:26:00.000+08:00

Second trade of LONG position was closed at 291.6. After seeing potential negatvie divergence fo MACD-H, failure swing of RSI, increasing in selling volume, and 12-p EMA failed to cross above 21-p EMA, exit decision was made. In addition, HangSeng closed in negative territory did not give me a good feeling of holding on Long position as well. Second trade of the day closed with -0.3 loss.

That's all for the day. I close my day and week in positive note.

SIMSCI 07-JUL-2006: 2nd trade : Long position

2006-07-07T15:47:00.000+08:00

Second trade for today,Long position of SIMSCI was established at 291.9.

RE: SIMSCI 07-JUL-2006: Short position Closed.

2006-07-07T12:33:00.000+08:00

This is a quick trade. My target for short position was reached at 290.7 which is the top of intraday support area. One trade closed with +0.7 points gain. chart will be posted later.

RE:SIMSCI 07-Jul-2006: Short position

2006-07-07T12:05:00.000+08:00

Short position of SIMSCI was established at 291.4 after a descending triangle is formed. Close trailing stop is used as market is rather undecisive

SIMSCI 07-JUL-2006

2006-07-07T09:41:00.000+08:00

'You lost some, You win some', that was what happened to DJ. It lost around -70 point previous days, and gained around +70 points last nite.

In the first hour of trading SIMSCI was undecisive. I have yet to see a clear direction for today.

Take stock 07-Jul-2006

2006-07-06T23:01:00.000+08:00

I am pretty lazy in stocks trading. One interesting counter appears in my screen. China HongXing. It shows me some good price setup to LONG for the coming week.

RE: SIMSCI 06-Jul-2006: Long trade closed:Chart

2006-07-06T17:05:00.000+08:00

RE: SIMSCI 06-Jul-2006: Long trade closed.

2006-07-06T15:33:00.000+08:00

After seeing another ascending triangle formed in the afternoon session, I went Long on SIMSCI futures at 291.3. Long trade was closed at 292.3. I do not consider this as a good trade, though It was a profitable trade. As my initial target was at 292.6 which was found as intraday resistance. I exited earlier at 292.3 when seeing spread goes wild. This is another psychological weakness of mine. I never good in read price ticks.

Another positive day for me. One trade closed with + 1 point gain.

Chart will be posted later.

RE: SIMSCI 06-JUL-2006: Potential long

2006-07-06T14:44:00.000+08:00

Long position has been established at 291.3. This is second entry of the day to Long SIMSCI futures.

RE:SIMSCI 06-Jul-2006: Long trade missed

2006-07-06T11:35:00.000+08:00

I just can't trust the stop order any more. This is the third time my order did not get executed and price moves away from my entry. An ascending triangle was formed this morning around 11am. I have set up a buy order at 289.5. Excellent, market moves up and hit a high of 290.3. And my order was not filled at all. I do not want to chase a trade, I cancel the order and leave the market. That was supposed to be a quick pattern trade. And I just missed the profit in this way.

I am watching for second entry opportunity. Of course, this time, only limit order, no more stop order.

SIMSCI 06-Jul-2006

2006-07-06T09:05:00.000+08:00

Hear is the headline today:

"NORTH Korea's launch of half a dozen missiles yesterday, including a long-range one said to be capable of reaching the United States, renewed security concerns across the region and beyond and raised jitters on financial markets." DJ closed with -76 loss. We have a gap down in SIMSCI, but it is moving up after that. Direction for today is still unclear. I am watching for trading opportunity now.

RE: SIMSCI 05-Jul-2006: Short trade closed Chart

2006-07-05T16:40:00.000+08:00

RE: SIMSCI 05-Jul-2006: Short trade closed

2006-07-05T16:08:00.000+08:00

Rooney said 'All I need is a goal', he failed to get one. To me, 'I need a good trade'. I got it. I am back to business today.

Short postion was established at 292. It missed my entry 292.3 though. Initial target is set at 290.7 which appears be a intraday support level. I have two initial stop loss levels at 293 and 292.2 to protect capital. Target was achieved perfectly. In fact, selling was so fierce that out of my expectation. It hits a low of 289.3. If I caught the bigger profit, that will be a bonus, otherwise, reaching my planned target is good enough for day trading.

One trade closed with +1.3 gain. Not so big, but good execution.

Chart will be posted after market closed.

RE: SIMSCI 05-Jul-2006: Potential short

2006-07-05T13:59:00.000+08:00

Well, to be exact, I missed an excellent Short entry for both SIMSCI and TIMSCI this morning. I was away from my screen. I see another possible short entry for the afternoon session, though I have not seen a complete setup yet.

SIMSCI 05-Jul-2006

2006-07-05T09:07:00.000+08:00

After Germany's exit from world cup tournament, I had a big plate of spaghetti for my breakfast. Back to business, U.S market was closed for Independence day, mostly clueless asian markets are likely to be a little bit quiet. Well, at least, SIMSCI had a small gap down this morning. I am not bearish for the day, at least, I see local market crowd are still in pretty positive buying mood. When leading markets are closed, this small crowd of market participants do help in moving the intraday market.

No setup is formed, yet.

RE: SIMSCI 04-Jul-2006: Long trade closed

2006-07-04T11:48:00.000+08:00

Again, I have decided to close the trade at breakeven point. 293, initial target was 293.5. This is the second day in a roll I exited a trade prematurely due to false signals in my exit setup and my mentality problem to move stop to breakeven point too early. I have done badly on these two trades. This is absolutely disappointing performance. One trade closed. +0.1 point

I am looking for another entry opportunity.

RE: SIMSCI 04-JUL-2006: Long position

2006-07-04T10:22:00.000+08:00

Long position has been established at 292.9.

SIMSCI 04-Jul-2006: Potential Long

2006-07-04T09:13:00.000+08:00

I am looking for opportunity for possible Long position of SIMSCI today. Unless there is any surprising news released, I do not expect huge movement today. Sentiment is rather flat with positive biased. Setup is yet to be completed after first hour of trading.

RE: SIMSCI 03-Jul-2006: Short position: Trade closed

2006-07-03T11:56:00.000+08:00

It was not a good trade. My initial target of 290.5 was not achieved. Market is pretty resillent, but not strong enough for me to go long, yet. I have closed my short position at 291.3 after seeing Nikkei back to +120 gain and RSI of SIMSCI making higher lows again. Short position closed with +0.1 points gain. This SIMSCI Futures 10-min chart of morning session.

Some thought on the 'Waves'

2006-07-03T11:09:00.000+08:00

I believe there are profitable Elliot wave traders out there. No doubt. Though I have never met any of them yet. In fact, I have met a lot of wave analysts, not trader. I am not an wave trader and I definitely do not have bad feeling towards these wave analysts, I just have the feeling that they have complicated trading unintentionally. They are trying to view the market in a different, maybe, creative way. But, they create the confusion at the same time.

Trading should not be so difficult (after all, you are buying something with good potential upside and sell it when it is in high demand). And wave, to me, is sometimes over subjective and the element of prediction or you call it forecasting is too strong. Being always objective is difficult but it is necessary for trading. I have come back to the same point, straight trend line, support and resistance line are in fact enough for you to trade profitablely. I have never believe in market prediction in my whole trading life. To trade, I prefer to face the fact, what is happening in front of my eyes. Accept the fact, and act on it.

I have the same feeling towards Gann's stuffs as well. If you are confused, not sure about which wave you are in now, why bother to spend your time struggling on these waves?

Make trading simpler, and trade better.

SIMSCI 03-Jul-2006: Short position

2006-07-03T10:04:00.000+08:00

Though SIMSCI gapped up at opening, it drifted down after that. I see an opportunity for SHORT position on SIMSCI futures. In fact, short position has been established at 291.4.

Take stocks 03-July-2006

2006-07-02T22:54:00.000+08:00

I saw some interesting stocks trading candidates : -Hengxin Technology -FerroChina -Luzhou BioChem. These counters show me some potential upside for the coming week.

RE: SIMSCI 30-June-2006: Potential Long: No trade

2006-06-30T18:06:00.000+08:00

Ok, this is another 'do-nothing'day for SG market. There is no rewarding entry level for SIMSCI. It opened high with impressive +8 points gain,

however, it was drifting down subsequently and staying flat for the whole trading day. Here I am showing how ugly is the SIMSCI 10-min chart for the day.

SIMSCI 30-June-2006: Potential Long

2006-06-30T09:10:00.000+08:00

A three digit gain in DJ. Nikkei gains more than 300 points in the first hour of trading, SG gains around +8 points, pretty bullish day. I am watching for any possible entry to Long SIMSCI. With this type of big gap opening, patience is needed if one is to day trade. It might end up as a boring day with no trade setup completed.

No trade 29-June-2006

2006-06-29T14:04:00.000+08:00

I did not have any position for TIMSCI today. It was rather volatile and boring. It failed to complete my setup. In fact, after watching TIMSCI for the past few days, I found that it is a little bit tedious to trade this index. Price action goes wild frequently. No setup for SIMSCI. I guess tomorrow should have some action after Fed meeting tonight. I agree with some comments put on my blog about Mini Dow. I do find opportunity on this index futures. However, opportunities normaly appear after 11 to 12am Singapore time. I am the person who needs to struggle staying through the night (That's why watching World cup is just not for me), it is risky for me to day trade in the wee hours of the morning. I am not interested in trading stocks at this point of time. So far, it has been a lousy week to me. Looking forward for a next better trading week.

Trading for 29-June-2006: Potential Long TIMSCI, Pattern Pending SIMSCI

2006-06-29T09:01:00.000+08:00

Sentiment is rather flat with positive biased. I see the possibility to Long TIMSCI today. After first hour of trading, a ascending triangle is being formed. Setup is yet to be completed. I am watching for possible Long entry.

I am slowing down myself in trading SIMSCI futures. Instead of sticking my mind to look for every possible trading opportunity on this tiny index futures, I will only trade if my predefined pattern setup exists. Otherwise, I will just leave it alone.

TIMSCI 28-June-2006: Long trade closed.

2006-06-28T12:47:00.000+08:00

I was looking at TIMSCI this morning. With 3-digits closed of Dow, TIMSCI opened low this morning. After first hour of trading, a descending triangle is formed in 5-min chart. I was looking at SHORT entry at 265.8. I pulled out my sell stop order, as realising RSI formation was not in my favour.

I waited for opportunity to go Long after seeing double bottom with high lows formation is RSI. Long position was established at 266.4. Mistake was made when I decided to put a closed stop loss at 266. Initial stop loss should be placed at 265. I did not face the fact that the volatility of this index did not allow me to be timid. Stoploss was hit as expected.

In fact , analysis done retrospectively shows if I were to follow my original plan, trade should be closed at 266.3. Though it is still a losing trade, loss is smaller and taken out by planned trailing stop is the best way of exit.

Small loss to pay for the lesson. One trade and the first trade of TIMSCI with a loss of -0.4 points.

SIMSCI 27-June-2006: TIMSCI looks better

2006-06-27T10:29:00.000+08:00

I am having some problem day trading SIMSCI. I should say, it is a little bit difficult to find trading opportunity within the day. First problem lies in volume, for example, in the first two hours of trading today, less than 1000 contracts were traded. Secondly, intraday volatility is not impressive enough to generate attractive potential reward. I do not have trading idea for SIMSCI yet. Instead, TIMSCI (MSCI Taiwan) futures caught my attention. It is a volatile index, and traded in pretty good volume. Intraday chart looks good with trading opportunities. Another quiet day for me, watching the market. This month's profit target seems to be too far for me to reach. I am studying and adjusting the figure for next month.

RE: SIMSCI 26-June-2006

2006-06-26T14:32:00.000+08:00

I have made a mistake today. Partly due to physical tiredness. I saw opportunity to Long SIMSCI at 280, (in fact, 279.9, if I was sharp enough). I was hesitating for nothing. It was not fear, but, my mind was stalled at that moment. All setup was done, and yet no action. Mistake is a mistake, I can't argue with market, nor would I chase the trade.

From 10-min chart, RSI started trend up before lunch break, and entry line was found at 279.5, with maximum chasing level at 280. This was supposed to be a small quick trade.

This is 10-min chart of SIMSCI Futures

SIMSCI 26-June-2006: Likely choppy

2006-06-26T09:36:00.000+08:00

Market is likely to be flat for the coming days ahead of Fed meeting. I do not expect a nice trending intraday, instead it is likely to be choppy.

I am watching for any potential trading opportunity.

Opportunist series: Stocks for 24-June-2006 onwards

2006-06-24T14:43:00.000+08:00

Here I see some interesting stocks which appear to rebound. Though market sentiment remains negative, these stocks provide some quick short term trading opportunities. I saw tiong woon, C&O pharm, SKY china petrol, and InterraRes. I was preparing Monday's stockst trading, when I was almost finishing, a sudden thought came into my mind. All the potential candidates I saw are trading under long term moving averages. In which, it is telling me uptrend is not resumed just yet. Why do I even think of buying them? My profitable stocks trades before the corrections were all riding uptrend, because I knew the success rate is high when riding a established trend. And now, I am contradicting myself, just because of the unknown agenda to trade in my mind, and the hungry of profit. I closed my documents. I ignored all my preparations. No stocks trading for now, I was just wasting my time.

RE: SIMSCI 23-June-2006

2006-06-23T13:19:00.000+08:00

I have decided not to trade today due to some personal commitment in the afternoon session. No short position for SIMSCI was established in ther morning after watching Nikkei making a higher low and failed to form a failure swing in RSI. It is likely to move up and might lead SIMSCI to bounce as well in the afternoon session. In addition, a potential double bottom formation was found in SIMSCI chart as well. Some charting problems in the early of the week, not a good week with only small gain. I close the week earlier with positive note.

SIMSCI 23-June-2006: Potential short

2006-06-23T10:00:00.000+08:00

In the first hour of trading, downtrend is formed. With Nikkei loses around -200 points and HangSeng loses around -150 point, sentiment is negative biased. I am looking for opportunity to establish Short position on SIMSCI.

RE:Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow 22-June-2006: Trade closed

2006-06-22T23:28:00.000+08:00

After watching RSI making higher low and 10-min chart showed a undecisive movement, I closed the trade at 11,130 , with -18 points loss.

Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow 22-June-2006

2006-06-22T21:33:00.000+08:00

I am looking at Short position of Mini Dow at 11,112. A established downtrend is shown in 10-min chart.

RE: SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Long Trade Closed

2006-06-22T15:34:00.000+08:00

Long position of SIMSCI was closed at 282.4. Volume did not support buyers to push up further, and RSI was forming failure swing. A descending triangle was forming as well. I do not like the situation like this. Closed the trade with small gain. +0.4 point. I was very unhappy with the liquidity of SIMSCI. Sometimes it does give me the feeling of 'Why on the earth I am wasting my time trading this dummy index futures?'. Look at the daily volume, it is hardly cross 5000 contracts. I do see opportunity in SIMSCI futures trading, however, given the lack of liquidity, I am considering switching to some other better choice. This is 10-min chart of SIMSCI as at 3.30pm.

RE: SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Long Trade

2006-06-22T14:30:00.000+08:00

After Nikkei gaining +400 points. I have established a Long position of SIMSCI at 282. SIMSCI does not seem to be strong. Closed trailing stop is placed.

RE: SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Potential Long

2006-06-22T12:34:00.000+08:00

In fact, there were two opportunities to establish short position for SIMSCI at 1010am (281.7) and 1140am (281.3) , and these opportunities were proven to be profitable before lunch break. No action was taken as Nikkei and HangSeng were showing strong gain with more than 200 to 300 points gain. With positive regional sentiment, I would rather go Long or simply not trading.

SIMSCI 22-June-2006: Potential Long

2006-06-22T08:39:00.000+08:00

It is a positive morning, with 3-digit gain in DJ last nite, both Nikkei and SIMSCI opened higher. Nikkei is trading near +300 point, while SIMSCI is trading around +4 point gain. I am looking for opportunity to enter Long position.

Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow 21-June-2006

2006-06-21T23:35:00.000+08:00

It is a excited opening for U.S market. From 1 min chart of Mini Dow,there was a good setup for Long position. Mini Dow futures was trading above 10, 15, and 30 period moving averages and closed above CBL entry level. RSI supported the entry decision by making higher lows. Entry was at 11075 with exit at trailing stop 11114.

RE: SIMSCI 21-June-2006: Long Trade closed

2006-06-21T15:56:00.000+08:00

Position was closed at 277.3. SIMSCI futures failed to push up further after reached 278.1, 0.4 points away from my target. So near ,yet so far. That's trading. RSI off the high and fell below previous low. And spread of SIMSCI seemed to be abnormal. Europe and U.S futures were turning red as well. I was not comfortable with the situation to Long SIMSCI, sentiment does not support the buyers. position was closed.

I might be wrong, I found no reason to hold on Long position. One trade, 0 point gain.

RE: SIMSCI 21-June-2006: Long Trade

2006-06-21T15:11:00.000+08:00

Another reversal trade again. Long position was established at 277.3 which is above previous resistance. My initial target is set at 278.5 which was previous high (resistance area) in 15-min chart. As Nikkei and HangSeng are having small gain and tend to be flat, I do not expect a strong bull run in SIMSCI today.

SIMSCI 21-June-2006: Potential Short

2006-06-21T09:09:00.000+08:00

So it sets to be a negative morning. Nikkei opened slightly positive and drifting down to negative territory now. No surprise for SIMSCI Futures. It is flat with negative biased. It is still too early to define direction for the day. I am watching it closely for trading opportunity.

Paper Trade Series: Mini Dow

2006-06-20T23:42:00.000+08:00

15-min Mini Dow

Finally , i got my new charting service up and running. I have been watching Mini Dow for opportunity. I have decided to perform paper trading for few days in order to get use of this new chart service. First entry is when Mini Dow broke recent downtrend and RSI making is positive divergence. Entry was triggered at 11022 and exit was set at 11041 which is previous high. Target hit. Gain +19 ticks. Second entry was set at 11054 when higher low in RSI is formed and Mini Dow broke count back entry . Signs of strength. Exit was set at 11090, previous high, resistance area. Target hit. Gain +36 ticks. Bigger profit was missed, however, the objective is to capture the strong move and exit at the known resistance level to protect profit.